注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

峰回路转

近水绕远山,芳草连着天边长

 
 
 

日志

 
 

把握你的命运----人生不是永远随机的(转载)  

2012-09-02 22:28:36|  分类: 励志成功 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |
以下原文转载自译言 - 编辑荐读

译者 JumboAugustine

Having learned and worked with probability for so many years, I, probably the same as you, have been somehow enchanted by this branch of science. Those digits and the logic behind it, attract people with different levels of understanding. One may ponder that our lives owe too much to this concept. Sadfully however, this is not true. Though so many problems in our lives can be abstracted in those fancy, tricky interview questions I presented in those tests; our lives, are far beyond the depth and complexity that the probability theory can provide us. And our decisions, are far more frequently made based on other factors than simply comparing two numbers of probabilities.

  我在学习和工作中应用概率论很多年了,我可能也像你一样,不知怎么的就对这个自然科学的分支着迷。那些在概率后面隐藏着的数字和逻辑性,吸引着有着不同程度理解能力的人。有的人会思索,说我们的的生活应该归因于这个理论。然而,我悲观的认为不是这样的。尽管我们生活中的很多问题会被这种想法抽象化了,在之前我所提及的很多困难的面试测试中,我发现我们的生活状态不仅仅是概率理论能够提供的,并且比它更具深度和复杂性。而且,我们所做的的决定,更多的取决于其他因素,而不是简单地比较两种概率的数值。

Einstein said "God does not play dice." For every event, there are virtually two choices: either happen or not, even before it happens. We give them probabity estimates simply because we can not figure out the true state, but not that they are random, e.g., weather forcast or the evolution of the universe. The destiny is more often deterministic, without changing with what happened before, now or future. The measure of probability describes more about the change of people's anicipation, not the change of the potential states. Therefore, the probability is more often a disguise of our ignorance of the facts, than a precise description of the chance of happening.

  爱因斯坦说过:“上帝是不掷骰子的”。对每一件事情的发展,都有两种可能,就是这件事发生或者不发生,即使在它发生之前。我们赋予这些事情一个发生的估计几率,是因为在做估计之前我们不能理解这件事的真实状态,而不是因为他们本身是随机的。比如预测天气或者是宇宙的发展。在事情发生之前不做改变的话,命运更多的是被决定了的,现在或者是未来都一样。可能性的估量更多地描述了人们的期望值,而不是事情潜在状态的改变。因此,这个可能性的设置往往是为了去掩饰我们对事实的无知性,而不是对发生几率的精确描述。

Even in making decisions, we don't rely on probability that frequently. In our lives, the deicsions are often one-shot, thus the probability just doesn't help. When one thing happens, it just happens, the results are acted upon you, no matter its probability was 1% or 99%; similarly, when one thing fails, it just fails, no matter the chance of failure was once thought to be so frail.

  甚至在做决定的时候,我们不会经常依赖于可能性。在我们的生活中,决定通常一闪而过,因此可能性起不到太大的帮助作用。当一件事情发生时,它仅仅就是发生了。这个结果都是取决于人为,不管这个概率是 1% 或99%;同样,当一件事失败了,它就是没有成功,不管我们认为它失败的几率多么小。

Therefore, we should not rely on those numbers. We should not play our lives in a way simply because it has 61% chance of success and the other has only 60%. Instead, we should strive to analyze, to change, to ponder and to practice. Because we know that the probability is fake, there is always deterministic result for your efforts.

  因此,我们不能依赖于这些数字。我们不应该用这样的一种方式对待生活,就比如说这件事有61%的成功率而其他只有 60%,我们情感就倾向于发生率在 61%的这件事。取而代之的做法是,我们应该争取去分析它,去改变它,去思索,去演练,因为我们知道概率其实不是事物所具有的真实性,事情的成败往往取决于你的努力。

Therefore, the probability is only for others to anticipate you, but you should know exactly what will happen.

  因此,概率仅仅是他人对你的期待度,而你应该确切知道它能够发生。

把握你的命运----人生不是永远随机的(转载) - 大卫 - 峰回路转
  评论这张
 
阅读(77)| 评论(0)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017